NIFTY FUTURES CLOSED AROUND 5810 AFTER MAKING A DAY LOW OF 5800 TOWARDS THE END OF THE TRADING ON TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY’S INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, NIFTY FUTURES FINDS THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND TUESDAY’S LOWS OF 5800 . IF AFTER THE INITIAL ERRATIC INITIAL OPENING MINUTES, IN CASE NIFTY FUTURE SLIDES BELOW 5800 THEN ONE MAY EXPECT A STONE LIKE FALL, MORE SO IF AFTER MAKING AN UPWARD RETRACEMENT IF IT FALLS BELOW 5800 FOR THE SECOND TIME THEN BIGGER FALLS MAY BE EXPECTED. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN ONE MAY TRADE SHORT TO SEE TARGETS OF 5785 FOLLOWED BY 5775 & THEN 5755 TO 5750 FUTURE LEVELS THAT MAY SUMMON THE BULLS FOR THE RESCUE ACT FROM HERE ONWARDS THAT MAY PULL NIFTY UP TOWARDS THE CRITICAL 5800 AGAIN.
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MARKETS FOR MONDAY 17TH JUNE
NIFTY SPOT MOST LIKELY HAS COMPLETED ITS DOWNWARD RETRACEMENT WHEN IT MADE A LOW OF 5683 ON THURSDAY 13TH JUNE. ALTHOUGH THE 4TH SUB SUB WAVE FLAT IN THE FORM OF 3,3,5 SHOULD HAVE RETESTED THE 10TH APRIL LOW OF 5477 SPOT, BUT THE ISLAND GAP REVERSAL FORMATION IN 3 DAYS OF 12,13 & 14 JUNE TOGETHER WITH THE 7TH NRB CANDLE OF 13TH JUNE CLOSING BELOW THE 200 DAY EMA FOLLOWED BY THE BULLISH CANDLE OF 14TH JUNE FORMING THE ISLAND GAP REVERSAL & CLOSING ABOVE BOTH THE RED NRB CANDLES OF 12TH & 13TH JUNE THAT TOO FAR ABOVE THE 200 DAY EMA ARE THE EARLY INDICATIONS OF STRONG REVERSAL EVEN THOUGH NIFTY SPOT NEEDS TO DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE 5981 IN NEXT FEW DAYS TO CONFIRM THAT THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION IS OVER.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY 17TH JUNE, NIFTY FUTURE NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH & SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A 15 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE 5844 TO SIGNAL HEAVY SHORT COVERING ALTHOUGH SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5825 SHOULD TRIGGER THE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING. SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5844 CAN PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS 5863 FOLLOWED BY 5875 TO EYE FOR THE 5900 FUTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5825 OR 5844 CAN EMPOWER THE BEARS TO START SHORTING AGAIN TO SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 5785, 5777 OR 5772. SUSTAINING BELOW THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5772 MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURE FALLING TOWARDS 5757 FOLLOWED BY 5740 THAT MAY SUMMON THE WAITING BULLS TO COME FORWARD AND SAVE NIFTY FUTURES FROM FALLING FURTHER INTO THE FRIDAY’S OPENING GAP BELOW 5740 FUTURE LEVELS.
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON MONDAY 17TH JUNE, NIFTY FUTURE NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH & SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A 15 MINUTE CANDLE CLOSE ABOVE 5844 TO SIGNAL HEAVY SHORT COVERING ALTHOUGH SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5825 SHOULD TRIGGER THE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING. SUSTAINING ABOVE THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5844 CAN PROPEL NIFTY FUTURES TOWARDS 5863 FOLLOWED BY 5875 TO EYE FOR THE 5900 FUTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER A FAILURE TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 5825 OR 5844 CAN EMPOWER THE BEARS TO START SHORTING AGAIN TO SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 5785, 5777 OR 5772. SUSTAINING BELOW THE FUTURE LEVELS OF 5772 MAY SEE NIFTY FUTURE FALLING TOWARDS 5757 FOLLOWED BY 5740 THAT MAY SUMMON THE WAITING BULLS TO COME FORWARD AND SAVE NIFTY FUTURES FROM FALLING FURTHER INTO THE FRIDAY’S OPENING GAP BELOW 5740 FUTURE LEVELS.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 24TH MAY
IT WAS ANOTHER TRIUMPHANT WEEK FOR NIFTY AS IT MADE THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF BULLISH CLOSING. WHAT IS MORE INTERESTING THAT EACH OF THESE 5 BULLISH WEEKS HAD NIFTY CLOSING ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK CONFIRMING TO THE MEGA BULLISHNESS THAT NIFTY HAS BEEN DISPLAYING AFTER MAKING THE 10TH APRIL SWING LOW OF 5477. NIFTY’S CLOSING THIS WEEK AT 6187 & DECISIVELY CLOSING HIGH ABOVE THE EARLIER 29TH JANUARY 2013 SWING HIGH OF 6111 AND ALSO ABOVE THE CRITICAL 4TH JANUARY 2011 SWING HIGH OF 6181 LEAVES THE BULLS WITH VERY HIGH MORAL TO LOOK FOR THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6323 JOINING THE VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCES OF 6357 & 6338 AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE LONG TERM MONTHLY CHART.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS TO GAIN SUPREMACY AROUND THIS ALL IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LINE, BUT BE ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT LIKE THE EARLIER BULL MARKETS, THIS TIME ALSO THIS CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE WILL BE BREACHED AROUND 6323 TO CROSS 6338 FOLLOWED BY THE BREACH OF EARLIER LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6357 TOWARDS A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH TO COMPLETE THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE. THIS IS
ALTHOUGH THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A TOOTH & NAIL FIGHT BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS TO GAIN SUPREMACY AROUND THIS ALL IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LINE, BUT BE ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT LIKE THE EARLIER BULL MARKETS, THIS TIME ALSO THIS CRITICAL RESISTANCE LINE WILL BE BREACHED AROUND 6323 TO CROSS 6338 FOLLOWED BY THE BREACH OF EARLIER LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6357 TOWARDS A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH TO COMPLETE THE 1ST UP SUB LEG OF 3RD MAJOR UP WAVE. THIS IS
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 17TH MAY
NIFTY CONTINUED WITH ITS MEGA BULLISH UP MOVE FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK & WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT IS THAT DURING EACH OF THESE BULLISH WEEK, NIFTY CLOSED ABOVE THE HIGH OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK THAT ADDED FURTHER STRENGTH TO NIFTY. A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 5975 SPOT & 5995 FUTURE LEVELS ACTED LIKE A STEROID DOSE FOR THE BULLS THAT SAW NOT ONLY HEAVY BUYING ABOVE 5975 SPOT AND 5995 FUTURE LEVELS BUT ALSO SAW BEARS QUIETLY COVERING THEIR SHORTS ON EVERY SMALL INTRADAY DECLINE FEARING THAT NIFTY WILL AGAIN BE UNTRACEABLE ONCE IT AGAIN BREACHES & MORE IMPORTANTLY CLOSES ABOVE THE 29TH JANUARY SWING HIGH OF 6111 SPOT & 6120 FUTURE LEVELS. WELL BEFORE THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS( 2 TO 3 DAYS OF CLOSING ABOVE THESE SWING HIGHS), ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER DRAMA BEING ENACTED BY THE BEAR OPERATORS, INTERESTED FINANCIAL CHANNELS TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TO INDUCE A FEAR AS IF ALL THAT WAS SEEN IN NIFTY DURING THE LAST FOUR WEEKS OF RISE FROM A LOW OF 5477 TO A HIGH OF 6114 ON FRIDAY 10TH MAY WAS JUST A DEAD CAT BOUNCE & NOT THE ON GOING MEGA BULL MARKET.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 3RD MAY
IT WAS THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF BULLISH CLOSING FOR NIFTY WHEN IT CLOSED THE WEEK AT 5871 SPOT LEVELS ABOVE THE FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5868. ALTHOUGH THE CANDLE OF THE WEEK ENDING 26TH APRIL WAS NOT AS MONSTROUS AS THE CANDLE OF WEEKENDING 19TH APRIL YET THE FACT THAT IT HAS BREACHED THE 3 CRITICAL RESISTANCES OF 5757 WHICH WAS THE NECK LINE OF THE INITIAL CUP HANDLE, 5838 THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM THE SWING HIGH OF 6112 AND FINALLY THE CRITICAL FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF 5868 TO HAVE A DAILY AND A WEEKLY CLOSING ABOVE IT ARE STRONG BULLISH SIGNALS SUGGESTING THE BULLS TO PRAY FOR A DECLINE TO DOUBLE THE LONG HOLDINGS. A DAY OR MORE OF A FRIDAY 26TH APRIL TYPE DECLINE WHEN NIFTY MADE A LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW & A LOWER CLOSING COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS DAY IS THE IDEAL SITUATION FOR THE BULLS TO REMAIN CALM AND AGAIN JUMP INTO THE GAME IF AT ALL NIFTY SPOT IS PULLED DOWN TOWARDS SUB 5800 OR 5750 LEVELS.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 26TH APRIL
AS WAS PREDICTED DURING THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF LAST WEEK, NIFTY DISPLAYED BULLISHNESS RIGHT FROM THE START OF THE WEEK ON MONDAY 15TH APRIL AND REMAINED BULLISH FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH THE DAILY PARSAR FORMED AFTER THE LOW MADE ON 10TH APRIL AT 5477 SPOT, THIS SWING LOW OF 5477 MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE SWING LOW FOR THE NEXT LEG OF THE UP MOVE. NIFTY HAVING RISEN TO NOT ONLY TO BREACH BOTH THE 200 DAY SMA & EMA AT THEIR JUNCTION POINT AROUND 5665 SPOT BUT ALSO HAVING CLOSED AT 5783 WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE BOTH THE CRITICAL 200 DAY SMA & 200 DAY EMA SUGGESTS BUILT UP OF FURTHER STRENGTH DURING THE COMING DAYS, PERHAPS IT MAY BE AFTER THE MOST LIKELY OPERATOR DRIVEN PULL DOWN TO WEED OUT WEAKER BULLS.
DURING LAST WEEK, NIFTY SPOT ALSO BREACHED AND CLOSED ABOVE BOTH THE 50 DAY SMA AT 5767 & & 50 DAY EMA AT 5740. NOW THESE CRITICAL DMAS & EMAS WILL PROVIDE INTRADAY OR CLOSING SUPPORT TO SPOT NIFTY ALTHOUGH OPERATORS & MARKET MANIPULATORS WILL TRY THEIR LEVEL BEST TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN AT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF WELL ORCHESTRATED ADVERSE NEWS, TO WEED OUT
DURING LAST WEEK, NIFTY SPOT ALSO BREACHED AND CLOSED ABOVE BOTH THE 50 DAY SMA AT 5767 & & 50 DAY EMA AT 5740. NOW THESE CRITICAL DMAS & EMAS WILL PROVIDE INTRADAY OR CLOSING SUPPORT TO SPOT NIFTY ALTHOUGH OPERATORS & MARKET MANIPULATORS WILL TRY THEIR LEVEL BEST TO PULL THE MARKETS DOWN AT THE SLIGHTEST AMOUNT OF WELL ORCHESTRATED ADVERSE NEWS, TO WEED OUT
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 19TH APRIL
IT SEEMS LIKE SPOT NIFTY IS RETRACING THE ENTIRE 1342 POINT RISE FROM ITS 4TH JUNE 2012 LOWS OF 4770 TILL ITS 29TH JANUARY 2013 HIGHS OF 6112 SPOT LEVELS. THE INITIAL 38.2% RETRACEMENT OF THIS 1342 POINT HAS ALREADY BEEN TESTED & BREACHED AT 5599. THE CRITICAL 50% RETRACEMENT COMES AT 5441 & THE MOST LIKELY 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL AROUND 5282 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH AT THE BEST BULLS CAN HOPE FOR THE RETRACEMENT TO END AROUND THE 50% LEVEL OF 5441, YET ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NIFTY SPOT IS TAKEN DOWN TILL THE FINAL CRITICAL LEVEL OF 5282 TO CLOSE BOTH THE PENDING GAPS, THE 1ST GAP WAS FORMED BETWEEN 14TH SEPTEMBER 2012 LOW OF 5527 & 13TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5421 & THE 2ND GAP FORMED BETWEEN 7TH SEPTEMBER 2012 LOWS OF 5309 & 6TH SEPTEMBER 2012 HIGH OF 5260. THE DOWN SIDE RETRACEMENTS TILL 5282 OR EVEN TILL 5200 ARE NATURAL RETRACEMENTS & IN NO WAY ALTERS THE OVERALL BULLISHNESS OF THE MARKETS. ALL LONG TERM INVESTORS FROM SEPTEMBER 2012 SWING LOWS OF 5217 SPOT LEVELS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD AND ADD MORE ON DECLINES OF SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS IT TO ENJOY THE FRUITS OF PATIENCE ONCE THE MEGA BULL RUN RESUMES SHORTLY.
IF ONE JOINS THE SWING LOWS OF 20 DECEMBER 2011 AT 4531 WITH THE SWING LOWS OF 4770 FORMED ON 4TH JUNE 2012 AND EXTENDS IT, THEN IT WILL FORM THE MAJOR SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200+ SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. THIS SUPPORT LINE ALSO FORMS A PERFECT UPWARD LOOKING RECTANGLE WITH THE RESISTANCE LINE FORMED BY
IF ONE JOINS THE SWING LOWS OF 20 DECEMBER 2011 AT 4531 WITH THE SWING LOWS OF 4770 FORMED ON 4TH JUNE 2012 AND EXTENDS IT, THEN IT WILL FORM THE MAJOR SUPPORT LINE AROUND 5200+ SPOT NIFTY LEVELS. THIS SUPPORT LINE ALSO FORMS A PERFECT UPWARD LOOKING RECTANGLE WITH THE RESISTANCE LINE FORMED BY
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