WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 03 JAN 2014

EVEN THOUGH NIFTY MADE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ON 9TH DECEMBER AT 6415 BY BREACHING THE 6 YEAR OLD 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357, YET IT COULD NOT SUSTAIN AROUND THE NEW HIGH EVEN FOR A MINUTE AND CONTINUED TO FALL TILL 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OG 6130 SPOT LEVELS. THIS TYPE OF PROFIT BOOKING CORRECTION IS VERY COMMON I ALL MARKETS WHEN A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IS MADE & ONE SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY SURE TO SEE MANY MORE OF SUCH NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS FOLLOWED BY MILD CORRECTIONS TO COMPLETE THE BULL MARKET OF LIFE TIME BY 2016. HENCE ANY CORRECTION IN NIFTY BY 200 TO 300 POINTS IF AT ALL IT COMES SHOULD BE TAKEN AS A GOD SENT OPPORTUNITY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS TO BUY AND HOLD. THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOWS OF 5972 MADE ON 13TH & 22ND NOVEMBER SHOULD BE KEPT AS STOP LOSS FOR ALL LONG TERM POSITIONS A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH MAY SEE ANOTHER FALL OF ABOUT 250 TO 270 POINTS TOWARDS THE NEXT CRITICAL SUPPORT OF 5700 SPOT. IN ANY CASE FOR SHORT TERM OR EVEN MEDIUM TERM PLAYERS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OF 6130 SPOT ON A CLOSING BASIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INDICATION TO TRADE SHORT TILL ANOTHER LIFE TIME HIGH IS MADE ABOVE 6415 SPOT.

AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, NIFTY IS IN THE PROCESS OF AN UPWARD LOOKING CHANNEL WHOSE UPWARD TILTING RESISTANCE LINE IS FORMED BY JOINING THE 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 & 3RD NOVEMBER HIGH OF 6343 & THIS RESISTANCE LINE WHEN EXTENDED POINTS TOWARDS 6600 & HIGHER LEVELS. SIMILARLY THE LOWER SUPPORT LINE IS FORMED BY JOINING THE 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701, 22ND NOVEMBER LOWS OF 5972 & 18TH DECEMBER LOW OF 6130 &
 THIS UPWARD LOOKING SUPPORT LINE MOVES TOWARDS 6200 AND HIGHER LEVELS. SO, MOST LIKELY NIFTY WILL INCH UPWARDS WITHIN THIS CHANNEL TILL THE ELECTION RESULTS & ONLY AFTER THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE OUT NIFTY WILL BREAK OUT OF THE UPPER CHANNEL. HENCE ONE SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY BIG BANG UP OR DOWN MOVE TILL THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE OUT & SHOULD QUIETLY ACCUMULATE THE DECLINES FOR GREAT GAINS DURING THE COMING TWO YEARS OF MEGA BULL RUN TILL 2016. SENTIMENT DAMPENING NEWS EVENTS BY FRAUDULENT CHANNELS, RATING AGENCIES & MANIPULATORS ARE THE IDEAL OPPORTUNITIES TO WAIT WITH PATIENCE FOR THE MANIPULATED DECLINE TO END TO ACCUMULATE FOR FABULOUS LONG TERM GAINS BY END OF THIS SLOW BUT CERTAIN BULL RUN.

THE INDICATORS IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE OVERBOUGHT ZONE AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO TO THREATEN THE RETAIL INVESTORS. 20,34, 50 & 200 WEEKLY EMAS & SMAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ONE ABOVE THE OTHER AND EACH OF THESE MOVING AVERAGES CONTINUE TO LOOK UPWARDS CONFIRMING TO LONG TERM MEGA BULLISHNESS OF NIFTY. EVEN THE TIGHTER WEEKLY EMAS & SMAS OF 3, 5, 8 &13 ALSO REMAIN ONE ABOVE THE OTHER AND EACH OF THESE TIGHTER WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES TOO LOOK UPWARDS THUS CONFIRMING TO THE MEDIUM & EVEN SHORT TERM BULLISHNESS.. TILL SUCH TIME SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT HAVE A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OF 6130, EVERY MANIPULATED FALL OF NIFTY FOR A FEW DAYS ON APPROACHING OR EVEN AFTER BREACHING THE 9TH DECEMBER HIGHS OF 6415 IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY TO RIDE THE BULL RUN. A DECISIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 6130 SPOT MAY BE THE EARLIEST DANGER SIGNAL FOR THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM TRADERS & INVESTORS TO QUIT LONG POSITIONS AND TRADE SHORT TOWARDS NEXT SUPPORT OF 5972 OR EVEN 5700 SPOT.

MOST OF THE DAILY INDICATORS HAVING BOTTOMED OUT AROUND THE 18TH DECEMBER LOWS OF 6130 ARE LOOKING UP AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOOK UP TILL SUCH TIME OPERATORS CALL IT THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO FIX THE RETAIL PLAYERS BY PULLING NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS OR BELOW 6130 TO HAVE A DECEPTIVE CLOSE BELOW IT SO THAT THEY CAN ENJOY THE MASS EXODUS OF RETAIL PARTICIPANTS WHO MAY NOT HAVE THE PATIENCE TO WAIT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS OF FALL TILL THE DOUBLE BOTTOM LOWS OF 5972. SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE THE CANDLE OF 11TH DECEMBER IS A PERFECT DOJI WITH THE HIGH OF 6326 & LOW OF 6280. THE BREACH OF THE LOW ON 12TH DECEMBER SAW NIFTY SLIDING TOWARDS 6130 & HOPEFULLY A BREACH OF THE HIGH OF THIS CRITICAL DOJI AT 6326 PREFERABLY ON A CLOSING BASIS MAY SEE BOLSTER PATTER SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS MUCH HIGHER LEVELS ABOVE THE DECEPTIVE HIGH OF 6415. IN ANY CASE THE EARLIER HIGH OF 6357 HAS NOT YET BEEN BREACHED ON A CLOSING BASIS BY SPOT NIFTY AND ONE NEEDS TO SEE SPOT NIFTY CLOSING ABOVE THE PREVIOUS BULL MARKET 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 TO BE FULLY CONFIRMED THAT THE RECENT PROTRACTED UP MOVE HAS A LONG WAY TO GO.

INTRADAY TRADING FOR MONDAY 30 DECEMBER FOR INTRADAY TRADING PURPOSE, SPOT NIFTY HAS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 6303 A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH BY CLOSING A 30 OR EVEN A 15 MINUTE CANDLE BELOW IT MAT MAKE IT WEAK FOR FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS 6290. IN CASE INTRADAY BULLS FAIL TO HOLD THE CRITICAL INTRADAY ZONE OF 6290 TO 6282 SPOT, THEN ONE MAY SEE FURTHER SLIDE TOWARDS 6262 FOLLOWED BY 6250 SPOT FOR AN INTRADAY BOUNCE FROM THESE LEVELS.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE BULLS CAN PREVENT THE BEARS FROM PULLING DOWN NIFTY BELOW THE 6290 TO 6282 SPOT ZONE THEN THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A GOOD INTRADAY BOUNCE TOWARDS THE 11TH DECEMBER PERFECT DOJI HIGH OF 6326 . SUSTAINING ABOVE 6326 CAN SEE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORT COVERING THAT MAY PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS THE CRITICAL RESISTANCE OF 6343. HOWEVER BULLS NEED TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 6343 TO 6350 IN ORDER TO FORCE THE BEARS TO INDULGE IN THE 2ND BOUT OF SHORT COVERING THAT MAY GET UPGRADED TO A MEGA SHORT COVERING SHOULD SPOT NIFTY CLOSES A 30 MINUTE OR EVEN A 5 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE 6350.

SUSTAINING ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 6343 TO 6350 MAY SEE THE INTRADAY BULLS HAVING A CAKE WALK AS THE BEARS MAY OFFER THE BULLS ON A PLATTER THE HIGHER LEVELS OF 6363 OR EVEN 6383 THAT MAY CLEAR THE PATH TOWARDS ANOTHER NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ABOVE 9TH DECEMBER DECEPTIVE HIGH OF 6415 SPOT. IN SPITE OF ALL THESE TECHNICAL LEVELS, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO FIND OPERATORS MANIPULATED GAP UP OR GAP DOWN INITIATED BY GAY OPERATORS FROM SINGAPORE WHO MANIPULATE SGX NIFTY TO INFLUENCE INDIAN OPENING. (REMEMBER SPOT NIFTY NEED TO HAVE A DECISIVE DAILY CLOSE ABOVE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357 TO SEE THE ENTIRE BEAR COMMUNITY GETTING CONVERTED INTO BULLS OR BULLOCKS COMMUNITY)

1 comment:

Anas Ahmed said...

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