WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 1ST NOVEMBER

DURING THE WEEK SPOT NIFTY MADE A NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR 2013 BY REACHING A HIGH OF 6252 ON THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER ABOVE THE 20TH MAY HIGH OF 6229. NIFTY ALSO BREACHED THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM DIWALI  5TH NOVEMBER 2010 HIGH OF 6338 JOINING THE 20TH MAY 2013 HIGH OF 6229. HOWEVER THE ALARMING FEATURE IS THAT NIFTY FAILED TO STAY ABOVE THE EARLIER 20TH MAY HIGH OF 6229 AND ALSO FAILED TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE. THE FORMATION OF A PIN BAR / DOJI ON 24TH OCTOBER TO SLIDE THERE AFTER ON FRIDAY TO CLOSE EXACTLY AT  6144 WHICH WAS THE LOW OF THE DOJI OF 24TH OCTOBER STRENGTHENS THE BEARS FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SO, A FURTHER FALL ON MONDAY TO SUSTAIN BELOW THE THURSDAY’S DOJI  LOW OF 6144 OR BELOW FRIDAYS LOW OF 6125 MAY SEE FURTHER FALL TOWARDS MUCH LOWER LEVELS.  IN ANY CASE, A SLIDE AFTER MAKING NEW YEARLY HIGH IS VERY COMMON IN NATURE THAT ALLOWS NIFTY TO PLEASE THE BEARS A BIT BEFORE MUSTERING ENOUGH STRENGTH TO MOVE UP AGAIN TO BREACH THE RESISTANCE LINE AND MOVE UP FURTHER TOWARDS THE NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS ABOVE 8TH JANUARY 2008 HIGH OF 6357. SO, EVEN IF SOME SLIDE MAY COME IN CASE NIFTY FAILS TO BREACH IN ITS SECOND ATTEMPT THE 24TH OCTOBER HIGH OF 6252, THIS SLIDE IN NO WAY WILL UNDERMINE THE OVER ALL BULLISH STRENGTH OF NIFTY WHICH IN ALL PROBABILITIES WILL TEST AND BREACH THE EARLIER HIGHS OF 6338 & 6357 FOR A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH MUCH ABOVE THESE.

THE INDICATORS IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS CONTINUE TO LOOK ROBUST & A WEEKLY NEGATIVE CLOSE ON FRIDAY AT 6144 SPOT AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF HIGHLY +VE WEEKLY CLOSINGS MAY NOT DAMPEN THE WEEKLY BULLISHNESS AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY CONTINUES TO STAY ABOVE  THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE COMING FROM  WEEKENDING 30TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 JOINING THE WEEKENDING 4TH OCTOBER LOW OF 5701. HOWEVER A FURTHER SLIDE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS OF OCTOBER TO CLOSE THE WEEK BELOW   6030 SPOT  WHICH IS THE LOW OF WEEK ENDING 18TH OCTOBER  & ALSO BELOW THE WEEKLY SUPPORT LINE MAY DELAY ALL THE HOPES OF HEFTY BULLS PLOTTING TO MAKE A NEW LIFE TIME HIGH ABOVE 6357 BY END THIS YEAR OR VERY EARLY NEXT YEAR.

THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY CHARTS CERTAINLY LOOK OVERBOUGHT AND SOME CRITICAL INDICATORS LIKE MACD & CCI ARE  FORMING DISTINCT NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES. NIFTY’S CLOSING ON FRIDAY AT 6144 AT THE DOJI LOW OF THURSDAY AND BELOW THE  7TH NRB OF 22ND OCTOBER AND ALSO BELOW THE DOJI LOW OF  21ST OCTOBER ARE ALL TOPPING OUT INDICATIONS THAT MAY ENCOURAGE INTRADAY BEARS TO INDULGE IN MERCILESS SHORTING ACTION ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE OF SPOT NIFTY BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE THE YEARLY HIGH OF 6252 SPOT. 17TH OCTOBER LOW OF 6032 AROUND THE DAILY PIVOT MAY BE THE LAST HOPE FOR THE BULLS BEFORE THEY QUIETLY  DECIDE TO JOIN HANDS  WITH THE BEARS IN PULLING NIFTY FURTHER DOWN TOWARDS THE  SEQUENTIAL FIBO LEVELS OF 6046, 5980 & 5913 AS LEVELED IN THE CHART ABOVE. IN CASE BULLS WANT TO SAVE THEMSELVES THEN THEY HAVE TO LIFT NIFTY UP TO BREACH AND SUSTAIN ABOVE  FRIDAY’S NRB HIGH OF 6174  TO FORCE & INDUCE BEARS INTO SOME SHORT COVERING THAT MAY LIFT SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS RETESTING AND BREACHING OF THE NEW YEARLY HIGH OF 6252 FAILING WHICH THE BULLS MAY HAVE TO BOW DOWN & LET THE BEARS RULE THE MARKETS FOR THE REMAINING DAYS OF OCTOBER TOWARDS SUB 6000 SPOT NIFTY LEVELS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING OF NIFTY FUTURES ON MONDAY 28TH OCTOBER  EXPECT THE BEARISHNESS TO CONTINUE IN CASE BULLS FAIL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LIFT SPOT NIFTY ABOVE  6174. INTRADAY TRADERS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE HANDSOME GAINS IN RESORTING TO BOLD SHORTING ON EVERY INTRADAY RISE  BY HAVING A STOP LOSS ABOVE 6174 SPOT ON AT LEAST A 15 MINUTE A CANDLE CLOSING BASIS. BEAR DOMINANCE MAY SEE INITIAL LOW OF  6125 BELOW WHICH SUB 6100 TOWARDS 6095 SPOT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY .  IN CASE BEARS CAN MANGE TO DOMINATE THE “NO MANS LAND” ZONE OF  6095 TO 6090 SPOT THEN ONE MAY SEE A STONE LIKE FALL TOWARDS 6074 OR EVEN 6060 TO 6055 SPOT LEVELS BEFORE ONE CAN EVEN THINK OF ANY BOUNCE.

SIMILARLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IN CASE BULLS CAN MANAGE TO CONQUER THE CRITICAL SPOT NIFTY LEVELS OF 6174 TO 6180, THEN ONE MAY SEE BEARS INDULGING IN SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY TOWARDS  6200 OR HIGHER LEVELS OF 6210. EVEN  A DECISIVE BREACH OF 6160 TO 6165 SPOT NIFTY ZONE TO STAY ABOVE THIS ZONE FOR A FEW MINUTES TO CLOSE A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT MAY SEE BEARS RUNNING AWAY BY COVERING THEIR SHORTS WITHOUT EVEN WAITING FOR THE CRITICAL SPOT ZONE OF 6174 TO 6180.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 11TH OCTOBER

THE TRUNCATED WEEK ENDED ON A BULLISH NOTE IN SPITE OF THE DISAPPOINTMENT FROM RBI GOVERNOR A WEEK EARLIER AND  BAD NEWS FROM US ON THEIR  DEBT CEILING ISSUE.. LIKE IT WAS MENTIONED EARLIER THAT THE MARKETS MOSTLY ARE MADE TO MOVE AGAINST THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS PROVED RIGHT AGAIN. THE MONTH OF OCTOBER STARTED WITH A BANG AND HAS CONTINUED SO FAR TO REMAIN BUOYANT AGAINST ALL THE ODDS. THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 WAS BREACHED BY SPOT NIFTY ON FRIDAY TWICE BUT FAILING ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS  TO CLOSE AT LEAST A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE   THAT RESULTED IN A LAST SESSION SELL OFF  ON FRIDAY FROM THE DAY HIGH OF 5950 TO FINALLY CLOSE THE DAY AT 5907 VERY NEAR THE THURSDAY’S CLOSING OF 5909 BUT FAR ABOVE PREVIOUS WEEK’S CLOSING OF 5833 SPOT GENERATING SOME FALSE HOPES FOR THE BULLS.

ALTHOUGH, THE WEEKLY CLOSING WAS POSITIVE BUT NIFTY MADE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF LOWER HIGH & LOWER LOW, THUS RETAINING THE OVERALL BEARISH OUTLOOK THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS DURING THE COMING WEEK SHOULD NIFTY FAIL TO DECISIVELY CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT. AN INTRADAY  BREACH OF THE CRITICAL ZONE TWICE & ON BOTH THE OCCASIONS FAILING TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THE ZONE EVEN IN THE 30 MINUTE CHART & FALLING TO FORM PIN BARS IN INTRADAY CHARTS & TO CLOSE BELOW THE CRITICAL  ZONE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED HAMMER IN THE DAILY CHARTS DOES NOT DEPICT COURAGE AMONGST THE HALF HEARTED BULLS THAT MAY SEE FURTHER FALLS.

THE 3 DAYS OF RISE FROM THE  1ST OCTOBER HAMMER BOTTOM LOW OF 5701 IS PERHAPS THE UPWARD RETRACEMENT TO THE SEVEN DAYS OF SLIDE FROM 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGHS OF 6162 TILL 1ST OCTOBER LOWS OF 5701. DURING LAST WEEK SPOT NIFTY HAS ALREADY RETRACED THE 50% LEVEL OF 5920 AND THE BEARS ARE PERHAPS WAITING FOR THE  MORE LOGICAL FIBO 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF  5973 BY WHICH TIME MANY NEW LONGS WOULD HAVE BEEN CREATED AFTER THE DECISIVE BREACH OF 5919 TO 5939 ZONE THAT WOULD GIVE THE BEARS THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO GO ON A SHORTING

MARKETS FOR THURSDAY 3RD OCTOBER

THE WAY NIFTY AFTER OPENING GAP UP ON TUESDAY, WENT DOWN TO BREACH MONDAY’S LOW OF 5718 TO MAKE A LOWER LOW OF 5700 & THEN WENT UP TO CLOSE IN THE FORM OF A GREEN HAMMER ABOVE THE MID POINT OF MONDAY’S CANDLE AND ABOVE THE DAILY PIVOT IS PERHAPS AN EARLY INDICATION THAT THE DOWN SIDE MOMENTUM WILL STALL FOR SOME MORE SESSIONS BEFORE ITS RESUMPTION TOWARDS 5500 LEVELS AS PART OF THE ‘ABC ‘ ZIGZAG CORRECTION TO RETRACE 61.8% OF THE 1023 POINT, A DISTINCT & COMPLETED 5 WAVE RISE FROM 28TH AUGUST LOW OF 5119 TILL 19TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 6142 SPOT. ANOTHER PRICE EVENT THAT MAY GIVE SOME REST TO THE BEARS IS THAT ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT HAS CLOSED ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE POINT OF 34, 50 & 200 DAYS EMA WHICH TOO IS RIGHT AT THE DAILY PIVOT. SO THE BULLS MUST TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS TECHNICAL SITUATION AND NEVER MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY OF LIFTING NIFTY SPOT AT LEAST TOWARDS THE SPRING ACTION ZONE OF 5919 TO 5939 FROM WHERE ON ONE WILL SEE THE REAL BATTLE BETWEEN THE BULLS & THE BEARS TO REGAIN SUPREMACY.

ON TUESDAY NIFTY SPOT MADE A HIGH OF 5787 AND HAS CLOSED AROUND 5780 NEAR THE HIGHEST POINT OF THE DAY BUT QUIETLY AVOIDING THE GAP ZONE BETWEEN 5808 TO 5818 FORMED BY MONDAY’S OPENING GAP HIGH BELOW FRIDAY’S LOW. SO, THE BULLS WOULD DEFINITELY PREFER TO ENTER THE GAP ZONE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STAY ABOVE THE GAP. HOWEVER A FAILURE ON THE PART OF THE BULLS TO ENTER THE GAP OR FALL TO LOWER LEVELS BELOW THE GAP AFTER MAKING A FALSE ENTRY INTO THE GAP WILL AWAKEN THE RESTING BEARS TO CHASE THE BULLS AWAY AGAIN SOUTHWARDS TO FULFILL THE BALANCE OF THE NARROW GAP BETWEEN TUESDAY’S LOWS OF 5700 AND 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 SPOT. ON TUESDAY THE BULLS PERHAPS LEFT THIS GAP BETWEEN 6TH SEPTEMBER HIGH OF 5688 & 10TH SEPTEMBER LOW OF 5738 HALF OPEN AS AN ESCAPE ROUTE SO THAT ON BEING CHASED BY THE BEARS FROM COMING FRIDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAN AT LEAST CRAWL THROUGH IT TOWARDS 5631, 5579 OR EVEN 5510.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON THURSDAY, THE LEFT OVER MOMENTUM SHOULD CONTINUE UPWARDS (HOPING THAT TUESDAY’S HIGH CLOSING WAS NOT A BULL TRAP) & BULLS SHOULD TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF RESTING BEARS TO CONQUER THE GAP BETWEEN 5808 TO 5819. A FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO ENTER THE GAP OR FALTER WITHIN THE GAP WILL SEE THE BEARS CHARGING FROM ALL DIRECTIONS TO HAMMER THE BULLS OUT OF SHAPE SO THAT THE BULLS CAN FORGET THE GREEN HAMMER OF TUESDAY. THE SPOT ZONE BETWEEN 5765 TO 5747 IS TOO CRITICAL FOR THE BULLS TO HOLD ON TO THIS LEVELS FAILING WHICH BULLS WILL VANISH FROM THE SIGHT OF THE BEARS. IN ANY CASE FALLING BELOW SPOT NIFTY LEVEL OF 5747 AND SUSTAINING BELOW IT WILL SEE LOWER LEVELS OF 5727 FOLLOWED BY 5690 TO 5685 TO CLOSE AT LEAST THE ENTIRE GAP TILL 5688 SPOT THAT WAS LEFT HALF OPEN ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINING ABOVE MONDAY 30 SEPTEMBER GAP HIGH OF 5808 SPOT BY CLOSING A 30 MINUTE CANDLE ABOVE IT WILL NOT ONLY SEE NIFTY GOING UP TO CLOSE THE GAP TILL 5819 OR A LITTLE ABOVE IT TOWARDS 5828 BUT ALSO WILL AIM FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF 5844 FOLLOWED BY 5878 SPOT, ALTHOUGH STILL MUCH BELOW THE CRITICAL TURNING POINT RESISTANCE OF 5919 TO 5939 SPOT NIFTY ZONE. (INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS FOR NIFTY FUTURES IS FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)