WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 21ST MARCH 2014

AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF LAST WEEK, NIFTY TOOK A PAUSE DURING THE WEEK  & THE HIGHS OF 6563 MADE ON 11TH MARCH MAY BECOME A STUMBLING BLOCK FOR THE BULLS FOR SOME NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A DECISIVE BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE THE EARLIER MENTIONED SPOT NIFTY’S MAGIC LEVEL OF 6565 WILL CERTAINLY PROPEL NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS THE CHANNEL BREAKOUT TARGET OF 6700+ LEVELS. MOST LIKELY NIFTY SPOT MAY EXTEND THE PAUSE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARDS THE NEXT TARGET OF 6700 LEVELS.

 AFTER THREE HIGHLY BULLISH WEEKLY GREEN CANDLES, STARTING FROM WEEK ENDING 21 FEBRUARY, LAST WEEK WAS A NEAR DOJI WEEKLY CANDLE. ALTHOUGH A DOJI AFTER MANY BULLISH CANDLES IS AN INDICATION OF THE WELL DESERVED PAUSE THAT MAY GIVE BIRTH TO  ONE OR TWO MORE OF SUCH DOJI  OR CORRECTIVE CANDLES, IT IN NOW WAY SNATCHES AWAY THE EXTREMELY STRONG BULLISH NATURE OF NIFTY. AT THE WORST CASE NIFTY SPOT MAY RETEST THE EARLIER BREACHED RESISTANCE LINE, NOW AROUND 6288 AND BOUNCE UP FROM THERE. AS LONG AS SPOT NIFTY DOES NOT CLOSE (CLOSING IS VERY IMPORTANT) A DAILY CANDLE BELOW THE 5TH MARCH PERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI LOW OF 6288 SPOT, ALL DECLINES TOWARDS THIS CRITICAL LEVEL OF 6288 SHOULD BE BOLDLY BOUGHT INTO & HELD TILL ELECTION RESULTS. MOST OF THE WEEKLY TECHNICAL INDICATORS POINT TOWARDS FURTHER UP MOVE ALTHOUGH A CLOSE BELOW 6500 SPOT ON ANY DAY DURING THE COMING TRUNCATED WEEK MAY SEND INITIAL JITTERS FOR THE WEAKER BULLS, YET THE WEEKLY CLOSING MAY SEE SPOT NIFTY BOUNCING UP TO CLOSE NEAR OR ABOVE 6500 SPOT FAILING WHICH THE BEARS MAY RULE NIFTY FOR SOME CORRECTION.

IN THE DAILY CHARTS  ALTHOUGH THE INDICATORS CERTAINLY LOOK HIGHLY OVERBOUGHT & THREATEN WEAKER HANDS FOR A SLIDE , YET THE ROBUST WEEKLY INDICATORS WILL ALWAYS GUIDE SEASONED TRADERS & STRONG HANDS INCLUDING THE WHALES TO BOLDLY BUY THE DECLINES . ON A DAILY BASIS, SPOT NIFTY NEEDS TO DECISIVELY BREACH  (CERTAINLY NOT THROUGH A WELL PLOTTED GAP UP ABOVE IT TO FALL & CLOSE BELOW IT) THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 6565 SPOT TO TRIGGER MASSIVE SHORT COVERING. SIMILARLY ON THE LOWER SIDE A DECISIVE BREACH OF FRIDAY’S PANICKY LOW OF 6432 SPOT MAY SEND SHIVERS TO
THE BULLS FOR LOWER LEVELS OF 6300 OR 6288 SPOT LEVELS AS IN THAT CASE A DOWNWARD  ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG WILL BE CONFIRMED TOWARDS THE EARLIER BREACHED CHANNEL RESISTANCE LINE NOW AROUND 6288 SPOT. AROUND THIS LEVEL OF 6288 SPOT,  IS NOT ONLY THE LOW OF THE PERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI  OF  5TH MARCH BUT ALSO IS AROUND THE  34 DAY EMA THAT MAY BRING IN BIG BULLS TO CHASE AWAY THE GREEDY BEARS .

 THE HIDDEN BUT EXTREMELY ATTRACTIVE &  WELL CONCEALED TWIN NARROW GAPS  BETWEEN 6413 & 6406 OF 7TH & 6TH MARCH  AND ALSO  BETWEEN 6339 TO 6336 SPOT THAT OCCURRED A DAY EARLIER  BETWEEN 5TH & 6TH MARCH MAY ATTRACT NIFTY SPOT TOWARDS EACH OF THESE  TO SEE A BOUNCE FROM HERE WITHOUT WAITING FOR THE  REAL WHALES  QUIETLY HIDING  AROUND 6288 TO BUY EN MASSE  & HAMMER THE BEARS OUT OF SHAPE.  SO THE THEM FOR THE COMING TRUNCATED WEEK SHOULD BE BOLDLY BUY & ADD TO THE LONG POSITIONS IF SPOT NIFTY BREACHES 6565 & RUTHLESSLY SELL IF SPOT NIFTY DECISIVELY BREACHES FRIDAY’S LOW OF 6432 SPOT.

NAUGHTY TRADERS MAY BE FLIRTY WITH 6565 SPOT TO PLAY SHORT IF 6565 CANT BE BREACHED WITH STOP LOSS ABOVE IT  TO REVERSE FOR LONGS & ALSO TRADE LONG IF ON THE DOWN SIDE 6432 SPOT  CANT BE BREACHED WITH STOP LOSS BELOW IT TO REVERSE FOR SHORTS. IN CASE 6565 SPOT IS NOT BREACHED THEN IT WILL CONFIRM THAT THE 5 WAVE UP MOVE OF 630 POINTS FROM  4TH FEBRUARY LOW OF 5933 TO 11TH MARCH HIGH OF 6563 IS COMPLETED AND NIFTY SPOT  MOST LIKELY WILL SLIDE DOWN FOR THE ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG CORRECTION TO RETRACE A  FIBO RELATED PORTION OF THE ENTIRE 630 POINT UP MOVE. A DECISIVE BREACH OF 6432 WILL CONFIRM THE ‘ABC’ ZIGZAG TOWARDS 6288 SPOT.

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