WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR WEEK ENDING 7TH MARCH 2014

THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY TURNED OUT TO BE EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR NIFTY & IF ONE GOES BY THE INDICATIONS OF THE WEEKLY & THE MONTHLY CHARTS, THEN ONE CAN EXPECT MUCH HIGHER LEVELS IN NIFTY TOWARDS 6565 SPOT THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE ONE TO BUY THE DECLINES AND HOLD LONG POSITIONS FOR VERY GOOD GAINS IN NEAR FUTURE. THE MONSTER WEEKLY GREEN CANDLE FOR THE WEEKENDING 28TH FEBRUARY  CLOSING HIGH ABOVE THE HIGHS OF PREVIOUS 4  WEEKS & CLOSING THE  BIG GAP BETWEEN THE LOWS OF WEEK ENDING  24TH JANUARY AT 6242 & THE HIGH OF WEEK ENDING  30TH JANUARY AT  6188 SPOT IS ANOTHER BULLISH SIGNAL TO SUPPLEMENT THE BULLISH WEEKLY INDICATORS LIKE RSI, STOCH, CCI & MACD. ALTHOUGH THE DAILY INDICATORS ARE DISPLAYING OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DAILY CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE, THE  STRENGTH OF WEEKLY INDICATORS & MONTHLY INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS FROM THE DAILY CHARTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED TO RESUME THE BULL RUN AFTER A PAUSE OR MINOR FIBO RELATED CORRECTION  FOR A FEW DAYS.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAILY CHART ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT SPOT NIFTY IS LIKELY TO MEET MASSIVE RESISTANCE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT  AS THE RESISTANCE LINE COMING FROM 9TH DECEMBER HIGH OF 6415 & JOINING THROUGH 23RD JANUARY HIGH OF 6355 IS LIKELY TO MEET NIFTY AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT LEVELS. IN CASE SPOT NIFTY FAILS TO DECISIVELY BREACH THIS RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 & MORE IMPORTANTLY FAILS TO CLOSE ABOVE IT THEN ONE CAN SEE MASSIVE BEAR HAMMERING TO PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS 6161 TO RISE AGAIN. MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE LEVEL OF 6313 TO 6323 IS THE SPOT LEVEL OF 6358 A DECISIVE  BREACH AND CLOSE ABOVE WHICH CAN EASILY SKIP THE EARLIER LIFE TIME HIGH OF 6415 TO SEE 6565 SPOT IN QUICK TIME. CUNNING TRADERS MAY TRY BUTTERING THEIR SHORTING FINGERS TO TRADE SHORT AS SPOT NIFTY CROSSES 6300 WITH STRICT STOP LOSS ABOVE 6358 SPOT TO ENTIRELY DISCARD THE SHORTS AND GO MEGA LONG ABOVE 6358 SPOT.  ALTHOUGH BREACH OF 6175 ON THE DOWN SIDE IS TOUGH  BUT IF IT IS BREACHED ON A CLOSING BASIS THEN ONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BIGGER FALLS BEFORE RISING AGAIN TOWARDS NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

INTRADAY TRADING FOR MONDAY 3RD MARCH   NIFTY SPOT HAD CLOSED AROUND 6268 ON FRIDAY. NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE DISPLAYED BY INDICATORS IN THE HOURLY & HALF HOURLY CHARTS COUPLED WITH OVERBOUGHT INDICATIONS IN THE DAILY CHARTS AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHART OF SPOT NIFTY ABOVE MAY SEE SELL OFF  IN CASE NIFTY OPENS WITH A BIGGER GAP UP. INITIAL RESISTANCE MAY COME AROUND
6286 TO 6296 SPOT ABOVE FRIDAY’S HIGHS OF 6282 SPOT. FAILURE ON THE PART OF BULLS TO BREACH & MORE IMPORTANTLY SUSTAIN ABOVE THE  CRITICAL HIGHER ZONE OF 6286 TO 6296 CAN SEE INITIAL BOUT OF SHORTING THAT MAY PULL NIFTY DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER LEVELS OF 6250 TO 6242 SUSTAINING BELOW WHICH ONE CAN EXPECT 6226 TO 6220 IN A DAY OR TWO.

HOWEVER MOVING UP & SUSTAINING ABOVE 6286 TO 6296 SPOT MAY SEE SHORT COVERING  BY WEAKER HANDS THAT MAY PUSH  UP NIFTY TOWARDS THE RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT TO INDICATE THE FEBRUARY BULLS TO  BOOK SOME PROFIT IN ORDER TO RE ENTER LONGS AFTER A FIBO RELATED DECLINE. A DECISIVE BREACH OF RESISTANCE LINE AROUND 6313 TO 6323 SPOT ZONE MAY SEE HUGE SHORT COVERING TO PROPEL SPOT NIFTY UP TOWARDS MAJOR RESISTANCE OF 6358 SPOT IN A DAY OR TWO ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL CORRECTION IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE PRESENT LEVELS OR FROM AROUND 6300 SPOT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE RISE & BREACH OF 9TH DECEMBER HIGHS OF 6415 TOWARDS A NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.

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